Randomized trials are widely considered as the gold standard for evaluating the effects of decision policies.

In many cases, treatments are naturally structured .

In many cases, treatments are naturally structured .

Although some simple models with unobserved con-founders are known to produce correct results [Angrist et al., 1996, Pearl et al., 2016, Miao et al.,

Although some simple models with unobserved con-founders are known to produce correct results [Angrist et al., 1996, Pearl et al., 2016, Miao et al.,

Visceral adipose tissue (VAT) is a key marker of both metabolic health and habitual physical activity (PA). Excess VAT is highly correlated with type 2 diabetes and insulin resistance. The mechanistic basis for this pathophysiology relates to overloading the liver with fatty acids. VAT is also a highly labile fat depot, with increased turnover stimulated by catecholamines during exercise. VAT can be measured with sophisticated imaging technologies, but can also be inferred directly from PA. We tested this relationship using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data from 2011-2014, for individuals aged 20-60 years with 7 days of accelerometry data (n=2,456 men; 2,427 women) [1]. Two approaches were used for estimating VAT from activity. The first used engineered features based on movements during gait and sleep, and then ridge regression to map summary statistics of these features into a VAT estimate. The second approach used deep neural networks trained on 24 hours of continuous accelerometry. A foundation model first mapped each 10s frame into a high-dimensional feature vector. A transformer model then mapped each day's feature vector time series into a VAT estimate, which were averaged over multiple days. For both approaches, the most accurate estimates were obtained with the addition of covariate information about subject demographics and body measurements. The best performance was obtained by combining the two approaches, resulting in VAT estimates with correlations of r=0.86. These findings demonstrate a strong relationship between PA and VAT and, by extension, between PA and metabolic health risks.

High-resolution estimates of population health indicators are critical for precision public health. We propose a method for high-resolution estimation that fuses distinct data sources: an unbiased, low-resolution data source (e.g. aggregated administrative data) and a potentially biased, high-resolution data source (e.g. individual-level online survey responses). We assume that the potentially biased, high-resolution data source is generated from the population under a model of sampling bias where observables can have arbitrary impact on the probability of response but the difference in the log probabilities of response between units with the same observables is linear in the difference between sufficient statistics of their observables and outcomes. Our data fusion method learns a distribution that is closest (in the sense of KL divergence) to the online survey distribution and consistent with the aggregated administrative data and our model of sampling bias. This method outperforms baselines that rely on either data source alone on a testbed that includes repeated measurements of three indicators measured by both the (online) Household Pulse Survey and ground-truth data sources at two geographic resolutions over the same time period.

In many cases, treatments are naturally structured .